Vantage's 2027 Retail Media Predictions

2027 Is the Year Retail and Commerce Media Networks Have to Prove It

For the past few years, retail media has been all about the launch. Another network, another pitch, another promise of access to valuable customers. In 2027, we expect brands to demand more proof before committing their next dollar.

So what earns a network a place in an advertiser's plan, and keeps it there? Vantage's Melissa Gallo, Abby Borden, and Drew Cashmore share their predictions for the future of retail and commerce media.‍

1. More commerce media networks will launch, and fewer will stand out.

In 2027, more companies will look to turn their customer relationships and first-party data into new revenue. Our VP, Solutions & Delivery, Melissa Gallo, who previously led client success at CVS Media Exchange and revenue operations at Walmart Connect, expects many of the new commerce media networks to come from outside retail, as payments, travel, and delivery companies continue to join the space.

While U.S. retail media ad spend is forecasted to reach $88.34 billion next year, growth is still slowing, and Amazon is expected to account for almost 80% of the market. With everyone else competing for what's left, networks will need to be clear about what brands can get from them that they can’t get elsewhere, and how they’ll deliver that value consistently and profitably.

Launching a network is only the beginning. The harder question is: Why you?

2. The sponsored answer competes with the sponsored listing.

AI shopping assistants are taking on more of the product discovery that used to happen on a traditional results page, and they show shoppers fewer options. A retail search page shows about 40 organic products, while an AI recommendation mentions about five. When the shelf shrinks that much, each spot carries more weight.

Buyers are feeling it: 44% call adapting to AI-driven discovery their top media investment challenge. Ads are moving in, too. Amazon has expanded sponsored prompts in Rufus, Walmart has tested ads in Sparky, and outside retail, OpenAI and Google are testing sponsored placements in ChatGPT and AI Overviews.

In 2027, getting into the assistant’s answer will matter as much as a top placement. But our Chief Strategy Officer, Drew Cashmore, sees the real test as what comes next: whether influencing recommendations will drive new sales for a brand, and whether the network can prove it.

The sponsored listing was built for a shopper scrolling through options. As AI assistants take on more of that discovery, retail media networks will have to figure out what they’re selling when the shopper gets a recommendation instead of a page of results.

In 2027, the real test will be whether influencing that recommendation creates additional sales for a brand and whether the network can prove it.” Drew Cashmore, Chief Strategy Officer at Vantage

3. “We have the data” won’t be enough.

Networks need a clearer story to get brands’ attention. When every pitch leads with first-party data, closed-loop measurement, and omnichannel reach, advertisers have little reason to choose one network over another. As networks become easier to buy and compare, “we have the data” won’t be enough.

Advertisers are looking for speed, flexibility, and clarity, and most commerce media networks are still earning trust one campaign at a time. A stronger pitch needs an experience that backs it up.

Vantage VP, Marketing, Abby Borden predicts the networks that pull ahead in 2027 will start positioning themselves more like products: with a specific promise, a clear benefit to advertisers, and a reason to choose them over the competition.

4. Partnerships will expand what networks can offer.

Building a completely self-contained retail media network from scratch is expensive. In 2027, Melissa expects more networks to partner with companies in complementary industries, giving brands broader reach and data they couldn’t get from any one network.

In June, The Trade Desk’s travel and hospitality network brought together United Airlines’ Kinective Media, Uber Advertising, Booking.com and Marriott Media. This partnership opened up new data sets and audiences to advertisers who wouldn’t normally think to reach customers while they’re booking a trip, riding to the airport, or checking into a hotel. 

For individual networks, the appeal is clear: partnerships can make their offering more useful to advertisers without requiring them to build every capability or audience relationship themselves. The challenge will be making those partnerships feel like one coherent buying opportunity rather than another collection of disconnected media options.

5. As buying gets easier, standing out won’t.

Abby predicts that making it easier for advertisers to spend won't be enough to win their budgets in 2027. Self-serve tools, DSP access, and AI are making networks easier to buy, while shared standards are making them easier to compare. Once brands can line networks up side by side on the same metrics, the offer itself is what’s left to compete on. Anything generic risks being priced like a commodity.

The shift is already underway. The IAB is prioritizing standardization and interoperability, making it easier for advertisers to evaluate opportunities across networks. As buying becomes less of a differentiator, networks will need to give brands a more compelling reason to choose them.

Retail media has a marketing problem: every network is pitching the same story about first-party data, closed-loop measurement, and omnichannel reach. As networks get easier to buy and compare, ‘we have the data’ stops being a reason to choose anyone.

In 2027, brands will keep spending with the networks that say exactly what they’ll deliver, and then deliver it. Everything else becomes interchangeable.” Abby Borden, VP, Marketing at Vantage

6. Incrementality will shape where retail media budgets go.

Incrementality asks a simple question: did an ad drive sales that wouldn’t have happened otherwise? Shared standards make networks easier to compare, and the industry is still working on them: retail media measurement and addressability are a focus area for the 2027 IAB Annual Leadership Meeting. But a shared definition can’t answer that question for a specific brand.

Drew predicts 2027 budgets will hinge on whether a network can prove incremental results for a specific brand. Some networks are already building toward it, like Albertsons with in-store incrementality measurement. The networks that can tie results to each advertiser’s objective will have the strongest case for the next campaign.

7. Renewals will say more than launches.

Renewals and repeat programs will matter more than launches in 2027. Launches show that a network exists. Repeat investment shows that brands see a reason to use it again.

Keeping brands won't be automatic. Earlier this year, 26.1% of marketing leaders were planning to move retail media dollars to other channels. So how do retail media networks keep advertisers renewing?

Abby Borden suggests treating brands like customers you need to earn and keep. That means aligning around each brand's growth, packaging programs brands want to come back to, and using technology to deliver the network's value consistently.

8. Operational maturity pays off.

Operational maturity will define retail media’s next phase. In 2027, Melissa predicts networks will face more pressure to streamline retail media operations, simplify fragmented technology stacks, and be more deliberate about what they build in-house and where they turn to partners. Growth will still matter, but so will the cost and complexity of sustaining it.

That cost is easy to underestimate. Platform toggling, manual reporting, and data cleanup can absorb 75 to 125 hours a week for a five-person team, the equivalent of two to three full-time employees. Every hour spent there is an hour not spent launching campaigns or growing advertiser relationships. 

And the operational demands aren’t getting smaller. Only 12% of commerce media decision makers have built advanced full-funnel offerings across on-site, off-site, and in-store environments. So, most networks still have plenty of capabilities to add, and some important decisions to make about how they'll add them.

“We’ll see more commerce media networks launch in 2027, but launching a network is only the beginning. The harder work is giving advertisers something they can’t get elsewhere and building an operation that can deliver it consistently and profitably. That will mean being more deliberate about what to build, where to bring in partners and how to make working with the network easier for brands.” Melissa Gallo, VP, Solutions & Delivery at Vantage

What will set retail and commerce media networks apart in 2027?

More networks will launch. Buying will get easier. And brands will have more options for where to spend their money.

For retail and commerce media networks, that raises the bar. A compelling pitch might earn a first campaign, but keeping advertisers coming back will take more: a differentiated offering, an operation that can deliver on it, and proof that the investment is working.

The opportunity is still enormous. But the networks that grow in 2027 won't necessarily be the ones offering the most. They'll be the ones giving brands the best reasons to come back.